Saturday, February 24, 2007

Oscar Predictions

I thought I'd post my Oscar predictions for this year (though I reserve the right to change them right up to the telecast!). These are just who I think WILL win and not who I think OUGHT to win (based on zero research and very little thought, by the way. Haven't really had time to consider it, so be kind if a lot of them are wrong. :(( ):

Update: Well, I think I got more wrong than I have in the past, but it's not too bad for not having seen any of the movies and for taking about 3 minutes to pick? (Okay, it's still bad, but I'm hoping you won't notice.) The ones in red are the ones that actually won and my picks are the ones with stars by them.

In retrospect, I can see that some of my choices were pretty silly (especially the ones for Costume Design, Visual Effects, & Original Screenplay). If I had thought about it a little more, I probably would've made better choices, but there did seem to be some surprises that even now I wouldn't have chosen differently (like Supporting Actor, Foreign Language Film, & Best Song), so I guess I don't feel so bad.

Well, out of 24 categories, I got 16 of them right and 8 wrong, which is 66% right. Wow, that is bad! I think in the past 4 or 5 years, it's usually been 3-5 wrong which I guess just goes to prove that I am getting dumber.

Leading Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio in 'Blood Diamond'
Ryan Gosling in 'Half Nelson'
Peter O’Toole in 'Venus'
Will Smith in 'The Pursuit of Happyness'
**Forest Whitaker in 'The Last King of Scotland'

Supporting Actor:
Alan Arkin in 'Little Miss Sunshine'
Jackie Earle Haley in 'Little Children'
Djimon Hounsou in 'Blood Diamond'
**Eddie Murphy in 'Dreamgirls'
Mark Wahlberg in 'The Departed'

Leading Actress:
Penélope Cruz in 'Volver'
Judi Dench in 'Notes on a Scandal'
**Helen Mirren in 'The Queen'
Meryl Streep in 'The Devil Wears Prada'
Kate Winslet in 'Little Children'

Supporting Actress:
Adriana Barraza in 'Babel'
Cate Blanchett in 'Notes on a Scandal'
Abigail Breslin in 'Little Miss Sunshine'
**Jennifer Hudson in 'Dreamgirls'
Rinko Kikuchi in 'Babel'

Best Animated Feature Film:
**'Cars' - John Lasseter
'Happy Feet' - George Miller
'Monster House' - Gil Kenan

Art Direction:
'Dreamgirls'
'The Good Shepherd'
**'Pan's Labyrinth'
'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest'
'The Prestige'

Cinematography:
'The Black Dahlia' - Vilmos Zsigmond
'Children of Men' - Emmanuel Lubezki
'The Illusionist' - Dick Pope
**'Pan's Labyrinth' - Guillermo Navarro
'The Prestige' - Wally Pfister

Costume Design:
**'Curse of the Golden Flower' - Yee Chung Man
'The Devil Wears Prada' - Patricia Field
'Dreamgirls' - Sharen Davis
'Marie Antoinette' - Milena Canonero
'The Queen' - Consolata Boyle

Directing:
'Babel' Alejandro González Iñárritu
**'The Departed' Martin Scorsese
'Letters from Iwo Jima' Clint Eastwood
'The Queen' Stephen Frears
'United 93' Paul Greengrass

Best Documentary Feature:
'Deliver Us from Evil'
**'An Inconvenient Truth'
'Iraq in Fragments'
'Jesus Camp'
'My Country, My Country'

Best Documentary Short Subject:
**'The Blood of Yingzhou District'
'Recycled Life'
'Rehearsing a Dream'
'Two Hands'

Film Editing:
'Babel'
'Blood Diamond'
'Children of Men'
**'The Departed'
'United 93'

Best Foreign Language Film:
'After the Wedding' - Denmark
'Days of Glory (Indigènes)' - Algeria
'The Lives of Others' - Germany
**'Pan's Labyrinth' - Mexico
'Water' - Canada

Makeup:
'Apocalypto'
'Click'
**'Pan's Labyrinth'

Original Score:
**'Babel' - Gustavo Santaolalla
'The Good German' - Thomas Newman
'Notes on a Scandal' - Philip Glass
'Pan's Labyrinth' - Javier Navarrete
'The Queen' - Alexandre Desplat

Original Song:
'I Need to Wake Up' from 'An Inconvenient Truth' (Melissa Etheridge)
**'Listen' from 'Dreamgirls' (Henry Krieger, Scott Cutler,& Anne Preven)
'Love You I Do' from 'Dreamgirls' (Henry Krieger & Siedah Garrett)
'Our Town' from 'Cars' (Randy Newman)
'Patience' from 'Dreamgirls' (Henry Krieger & Willie Reale)

Best Picture:
'Babel'
**'The Departed'
'Letters from Iwo Jima'
'Little Miss Sunshine'
'The Queen'

Best Animated Short Film:
'The Danish Poet'
**'Lifted'
'The Little Matchgirl'
'Maestro'
'No Time for Nuts'

Best Live Action Short Film:
'Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)'
'Éramos Pocos (One Too Many)'
'Helmer & Son'
'The Saviour'
**'West Bank Story'

Sound Editing:
'Apocalypto'
'Blood Diamond'
'Flags of Our Fathers'
**'Letters from Iwo Jima'
'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest'

Sound Mixing:
'Apocalypto'
'Blood Diamond'
**'Dreamgirls'
'Flags of Our Fathers'
'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest'

Visual Effects:
'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest'
'Poseidon'
**'Superman Returns'

Adapted Screenplay:
'Borat Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan' - Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Peter Baynham, & Dan Mazer; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Peter Baynham & Anthony Hines & Todd Phillips
'Children of Men' - Screenplay by Alfonso Cuarón & Timothy J. Sexton and David Arata and Mark Fergus & Hawk Ostby
**'The Departed' - Screenplay by William Monahan
'Little Children' - Screenplay by Todd Field & Tom Perrotta
'Notes on a Scandal' - Screenplay by Patrick Marber

Original Screenplay:
'Babel' - Guillermo Arriaga
'Letters from Iwo Jima' - Iris Yamashita, Story by Iris Yamashita & Paul Haggis
'Little Miss Sunshine' - Michael Arndt
'Pan's Labyrinth' - Guillermo del Toro
**'The Queen' - Peter Morgan

Comments:
Nice picks, maybe 80% - 85% on the money. But look for Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest to take two of the three awards in Art Direction, Visual Effects, and Sound Editing. By the way, I really groove on all the things you offer on this site, the music, visuals, and conversation. Thanks.
 
Hi nomwl1,

it's nice to see that you're back. I've been lazy myself in the past weeks concerning blogwriting because I downloaded so many scores and TV episodes (I'm downloading about 10 weekly series now regularly).

I just read all your new entries and like to concratulate you on your GREAT sense of humor. I love reading texts like the one on "All I Want For Christmas" and so many others which have this great sense of self-irony. I bet you like "Seinfeld", "Frasier" and "Curb Your Enthusiasm" !

Well, keep on the good work, it's definitely appreciated. And if you cross sometime that "Harry in Your Pocket"-theme, perhaps you can post it.

Have a great day, week, month or, let's be generous, life !

Jordan from Germany (that Omega guy)
 
Neat picks! I agree that this will be Scorsese's year. However, 'Little Miss Sunshine' is almost certain to get Best Original Screenplay. I'm also hoping that Javier Navarrete wins for Pan's Labyrinth, but Santaolalla will probably win.

I can't remember a year in which the acting awards were such a given. Whitaker and Mirren are sure bets, and Murphy and Hudson look like locks, as well.

Damn, I love movies!
 
Sorry nomwl1---
Your picks are totally OFF---
Best Picture---Rocky Balboa
Best Director---Sylvester Stallone
Best Actor---Sylvester Stallone
Best---do I need to continue? (I can't help it if the Academy got it SO wrong this year---at MY Oscar Awards© it's gonna be a clean sweep!)
Ciao,
Rocket
ps---that was ALL tongue firmly planted in cheek by the way! thanks for the great Oscar related music. see you on the red carpet!
 
Howdy, Nowwl1,

I've really enjoyed visiting your blog. I especially enjoy reading your entries, thoughts, etc. about your music. Keep up the good work!

-FM
 
Hi Anonymous!

Well, it looks like it was closer to 66% on the money (& 33% off the money). :((

And you were right about the Pirates of the Carribean on Visual Effects. (I should've known to always go with the more popular film!) Though I guess it did lose out on the other two.

And thanks so much for all the nice things you said about the blog. I really appreciate it!

===========================

Hi Jordan!

I'm so glad to hear from you. I was able to take a quick look at your blog a few days ago and I was worried that maybe something had happened, so it's good to see it was just the usual (I hope you're downloading some good stuff!).

And thank you so much for what you said about the writing! I do enjoy Seinfeld & Frasier (though I don't have cable TV, so I've never been able to watch Curb Your Enthusiasm but from what I've heard I think I'd like it!).

And I plan on putting the Harry In Your Pocket theme in an upcoming compilation, but I'm still working on it, so it may take a while! (I hope it'll be worth the wait).

And I hope you have a great day, week, month, and life as well (Okay, I'll include the minutes and the seconds too. Why be stingy?)

And may you continue to download some wonderful stuff!

=============================

Hi J.R.!

Yup, you were right about Little Miss Sunshine! (and I was an idiot, by the way.....I don't know why I said 'The Queen')

And I guess we were both right about Santaolalla. Though I guess Eddie Murphy wasn't as much of a lock as we thought he would be (still we have to be in a better mood than he is right now).

And I completely agree with you about the movies!

P.S. I don't think I ever got a chance to say how sorry I was about your ending the Hub, but I guess with all that's been going on lately, it made sense. Still, I'm always glad to see you stop by here when you can! :))

==============================

Hi Rocket!!

You were so right! I should've seen it! I knew I should've picked Sylvester Stallone!! (at least for Best Costume or Sound Editing)

And you're very welcome for the Oscar-related material!

================================

Hi First Moon!

Thanks so much for saying it! It really means a lot. I figure people probably don't like the fact that I don't talk about the music more, so it's really nice to hear what you said! :)))
 
Hi nomwl1,

in all this crazy world, you are really a great guy.

I'm more of the cranky type (but in a positive way, I hope - like Ted Danson's "Becker" or "Dr. House") and it's a relief to see (and read) that there are 100% positive people around who still have a good taste.

Keep on the great work !

Jordan
 
... and congratulation on your Oscar predictions!

33% is great !!!

J.
 
...whoops, you got 66% right (fantastic !!!), but even 33 would be great !
 
pretty damn good if you ask me!
Thank god Marty got it, jesus, far too long, and of course the great Morricone was finally awarded (shameful), keep up the great work.

Ennioman
 
Hi again Jordan!

I'm actually a pretty cranky sort of person myself though it may not come across on the blog (okay, it probably does, but I'm going to pretend that it doesn't!)

Thanks for all the wonderful stuff you said!

=============================

Hi Ennioman!

And thanks for the congrats! And I couldn't agree with you more about Marty & Ennio! :)))
 
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